GDP ranking in the first half of the year

Since 2022, the global food price and energy price have witnessed a wave of rise. Countries have experienced varying degrees of inflation, and multiple currencies have depreciated by more than 10%, which has also changed the top ten ranking of GDP in the first half of this year.

On the whole, however, the economic development of various countries is not optimistic. Take Japan for example. As the world's third largest economy, Japan's GDP in the first half of the year was 2.191 trillion US dollars, with a growth rate of only 0.9%. Germany caught up with a growth rate of 2.8%, with a total GDP of 2.05 trillion.

If the Japanese economy still cannot recover in the second half of the year and the yen continues to depreciate, the possibility of Germany surpassing Japan will greatly increase.

Of course, Canada also overtook Italy and ranked eighth. In the first half of this year, Canada's economy witnessed considerable recovery and development, with an economic growth rate of 4.2% and GDP of 1.046 trillion. However, the Italian economy is not bad, with an economic growth rate of 5.2% and a total GDP of 993.192 billion US dollars.

Some people wonder why Italy has been overtaken by Canada because of its high GDP growth and large base? In fact, in the first half of this year, the euro and the yen depreciated significantly, but the dollar appreciated. GDP calculations in various countries are based on the dollar, so GDP growth in Japan, Italy and the United Kingdom is not too large.

In the first half of the year, the Korean won depreciated by more than 17%, which also made South Korea fall into the top ten of GDP, and Brazil successfully held the throne of the tenth largest economy.

However, the biggest attraction is that India has succeeded in overtaking the UK to become the fifth largest economy. This year, India is the fastest growing country in the world economy. Based on the perfect answer of 8.3% growth last year, it grew 4.1% in the first quarter of this year and 13.5% in the second quarter, which made India the fastest growing economy in the first half of the year with an average growth rate of 8.4%.

In the first half of the year, India's GDP was 1.719 trillion, 123 billion higher than that of the UK. In fact, it is a certainty that India will surpass the original suzerain, the UK. India has an enviable demographic dividend advantage, and its youth labor force is more than that of China, so the growth rate will not be poor in the next period of time.

At the same time, Modi called out the slogan of "Made in India" after taking office, and gave various policies to attract investment from other countries, which made the Indian manufacturing industry usher in greater development. In addition, the recovery of Indian service industry supported the economic development of India.

However, India has a large gap between rich and poor. Its per capita GDP is only 2277 US dollars, less than 1/10 of that of developed countries. Therefore, India cannot catch up with China in a short time. However, the Indian government has called ahead to become a developed country by 2047, some of which are too eager for quick results.

The growth rate of the UK in the first half of the year was 5.8%, which is also optimistic. It is the highest in developed countries, and all industries are experiencing steady development. However, because the devaluation of sterling exceeds the euro, the growth rate is high, and the GDP is only 1.59 trillion US dollars.

The GDP gap between China and the United States has been widened, and the US is 700 billion higher

On the whole, the economic growth of European countries in the first half of the year was quite good, with the growth rate generally exceeding 4%. However, Asia's performance was not satisfactory except for India, and South Korea's growth was only 3%. What about China?

In the first half of this year, China's GDP totaled US $8.68 trillion, up 2.5% year on year. Its growth rate is not too high.

As for why, it is mainly because of the repeated outbreaks in some regions in the first half of China, which slowed down the economic development of China and made the service industry perform poorly.

In contrast, the GDP of the United States in the first half of this year was 12.267 trillion, up 3.2% year on year, much higher than that of China. In general, the United States increased by 1.2 trillion, but China only increased by 455 billion. The GDP growth of the United States was 700 billion higher than that of China.

In the first half of 2021, the GDP gap between China and the United States will be 2.849 trillion. It was thought that China could continue to narrow the gap this year. However, due to the rapid growth of the United States, the gap between China and the United States has widened to 3.589 trillion.

If China's economic growth cannot catch up with that of the United States in the second half of the year, the gap between the total GDP of the two countries in the whole year may expand to about 6 trillion.

Last year, China's GDP accounted for 77% of that of the United States, but in the first half of this year, China's GDP accounted for only about 70% of that of the United States. Obviously, the gap between the two countries has gradually widened.

Many people are curious. Doesn't it say that the US economy has entered a negative growth this year and has fallen into a technical recession? Why is the GDP growth rate higher? Is the United States "really prosperous" or "brave"?

"True Prosperity" or "Brave"

Since 2020, the American economy has been hit hard. The number of unemployed people in the country has been rising, and the quality of life of the bottom people has become worse. In order to alleviate the pressure of domestic unemployment, the Federal Reserve chose to release water and print 6 trillion dollars in two years, in an attempt to transfer the inflation problem to the world.

Against this background, the US dollar has appreciated and easily raised GDP. That is to say, the US GDP growth rate of 3.2% is the result of printing money, which is not "real prosperity".

Under the great drain of the US dollar, the GDP of the United States in 2021 will be only 2% higher than that in 19 years. It is clear that the American economy has obviously entered a stage of technical recession. In 2020, the GDP growth rate of the United States was - 3.5%, compared with 5.7% last year. After removing inflation, the actual growth rate was only 2.2% in two years. Adding in the 2 trillion yuan increase in national debt, the actual growth rate of the United States last year was zero.

Since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times, but inflation has not gone down. On the contrary, the CPI has continued to exceed 8% year-on-year for six months, even once reaching 9.1%. In Europe, the CPI has also reached 8.6%. In Japan, the CPI has been around 1% year-on-year, and this year it has also reached 2.5%. All this is due to the high inflation brought about by the appreciation of the US dollar.

High inflation in the United States is very beautiful for the GDP data. For example, it used to cost $5 to buy a Big Mac, but this year it may cost $8, so the US GDP naturally overflows substantially.

However, the high inflation in the United States has seriously affected the lives of the people at the bottom. Weiner is an engineer. In the past, he often traveled and dined with his family, but this year, he dared not go out to play and could only cook at home. The main reason is that his income decreased and prices rose sharply.

Martin is a retired old man. His assets last year were $1.5 million, but his investment assets have declined by 40% due to the interest rate increase in the U.S. dollar, which makes his future expenditure budget tight and dare not spend at will.

In contrast, although China's GDP growth rate was only 2.5%, China's CPI in the first half of the year was only 1.7%, far lower than the 8% of the United States. If China's CPI exceeds 8% year on year, the GDP growth will reach 10%, and the gap with the United States will naturally be greatly reduced.

It can be said that the US GDP seems to have ushered in rapid growth, but behind it is the "bravado" mentality at the expense of the interests of the bottom people.

Now, China's economy has entered a stable development situation. Industrial robots, new energy vehicles, chip industries, etc. are developing rapidly. BYD has become the top seller of electric vehicles in the world. It can be seen that China's GDP will gradually grow steadily in the future.

In contrast, the United States is very likely to fall into a financial crisis in 2023, and its GDP growth will also slow down. It is estimated that the increase in the next three years will be 3-4 trillion. China is expected to grow by more than 5% in the next three years, and its GDP is expected to reach 170 trillion yuan in 2025, probably exceeding that of the United States.