The new energy market is expected to exceed 10 million units in 2023

"In 2023, the production and sales of China's new energy vehicle market are expected to increase by 40% year-on-year, the penetration rate is close to 40%, and the overall scale is expected to reach 10 million units". Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle Committee of 100, made the remarks at the Committee's media conference on Jan 12.

Looking back to 2022, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from January to November reached 6.067 million, up 100.6% year on year, with a penetration rate of 25%. The new energy vehicle market has entered a stage of large-scale development, and the demand continues to be released. China continues to lead the world, accounting for 63 percent of global new-energy vehicle sales.

In Zhang Yongwei's opinion, in 2023, the new energy vehicle industry will face multiple changes such as environment, technological reshaping, product upgrading, brand positioning and decarbonization challenges, and the competition between the domestic market and overseas market will become increasingly fierce. If the appropriate response, fully grasp the favorable factors, promote the transformation of automobile and parts enterprises, supply chain and value chain, the new energy vehicle market is expected to enter the era of 10 million vehicles in 2023.

Among them, favorable factors include: low-carbon development strategy drive, promotion cost policy force, technology and product innovation, market supply capacity strengthening. It is expected that more than 100 types of new energy vehicles will be listed in 2023, and the automobile enterprises will improve their response ability to diversified and emerging consumer demands. Adverse factors include fierce international competition, the withdrawal of preferential subsidy policies, the elimination of some auto companies and products, and the increasing instability of the supply chain.

The new energy market increase in 2023 will come from the sinking market. From January to November 2022, new energy sales in second - and third-tier cities and below accounted for 54% of the country, and it is expected to take up more than 60% in 2023, becoming an important support for the development of the new energy vehicle market.

In terms of market structure, in 2022, the price of pure electric models will move up, the price of plug-in models will drop, and the electrification process of mid-range models will be rapid. According to the analysis of factors such as model supply and vehicle life cycle cost, Zhang Yongwei predicts that the penetration of mid-end models will accelerate in 2023, the proportion of 150,000-300,000 models is expected to be close to 50%, the share of plug-in hybrid Chinese brands will maintain 90%, and the sales structure will continue to optimize from dumbbell type to spindle type.

In terms of the export of new energy vehicles, it has been growing rapidly for three consecutive years until 2022, with the export volume reaching 593,000 units from January to November, driving the export volume and price of complete vehicles showing a trend of rising. Every five vehicles exported is new energy, and the unit price of automobile export has increased from $16,000 last year to $18,000 by November 2022. Looking ahead to 2023, the number of new energy vehicle exports is expected to be close to 800,000.

In the field of power battery, performance and cost economy still have great potential to improve. Technological innovation and practical application will strongly support the development of new energy automobile industry. In 2023, a number of innovative technologies such as lithium iron manganese phosphate, PET composite copper foil and sodium ion are expected to achieve large-scale application. Semi-solid state and solid state battery technologies are accelerated to the ground, which will effectively improve battery energy density, safety, economy and other indicators.

Zhang Yongwei said that in 2023, the main contradiction in the new energy market will be the contradiction of "what car to buy" in the past, and the contradiction of "good use". Experience will become a very important factor to consider in the whole market. One is the experience of the car itself, whether it gives consumers a fresh feeling; Another key to good use is charging facilities, easy to buy a car, good car, convenient use will become an important factor. The second circuit of electrification is the charging circuit, and the first circuit is the car circuit. There will be a lot of bright spots in charging, especially the high-power and high-voltage fast charging and super charging, which will not only happen in China, but also in Europe and the United States are the new highlights jointly promoted by the industry.

From the product side, the key to car experience is the level of intelligence, several key intelligent technologies will become standard: cruise, blind area, parking, car following and other technologies will become menu technology highlights, as an important basis for consumers to choose.

Zhang Yongwei pointed out that the cockpit system has a lot of innovation space, there are high and low distribution, 7,000 yuan is basic, 10,000, 20,000 is high distribution, the characteristics of the enterprise, differentiation is reflected in the level of the cockpit.

"The auto industry is not busy enough in 2022. It will be busy in 2023 because there will be more technology involved." Zhang Yongwei said that the power of science and technology will become the new engine of change in the auto industry. Technology enterprises and vehicle enterprises complement each other in element resources, which can help the rapid transformation and upgrading of automobile products. As technology enterprises enter the automobile industry based on their advantages in technology, product, business and capital, the relationship between the two sides will gradually develop from unilateral empowerment to two-way empowerment for technology enterprises, accelerating the formation of a new industrial ecology of mutual benefit and innovative development.

Zhang Yongwei also introduced that as an industry event dedicated to promoting the cross-border integration of the development of new energy vehicles, the closely watched China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum (2023) has been officially launched. Zhang Yongwei, Vice chairman and secretary general of the Committee of 100 of China Electric Vehicles, said at the 2023 media communication conference on January 12 that the 9th forum of the Committee of 100 of China Electric Vehicles will be held in Beijing from March 31 to April 2, with the theme of "promoting the modernization of China's auto industry".