"If the supply chain enterprises in Shanghai and the surrounding areas cannot find a dynamic way to resume production, all vehicle manufacturers in China may stop production in May." On April 14, He Xiaopeng, the founder and chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, released an update in the WeChat circle of friends, pointing directly to the severe challenges facing the current automobile industry chain.

Previously, the tank brands of Weilai and Great Wall Motors have claimed that due to the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Jilin and other places, the supply chain partners of the company have stopped work and stopped operation. Affected by this, they were forced to suspend the production of finished vehicles, and the delivery of some vehicles will also be delayed.

The reporter of the Securities Times learned through multiple interviews that under the epidemic situation, the automobile industry is facing double pressures from the supply and demand side. Many vehicle manufacturers have stopped work or reduced production, and the production and logistics of parts and components have stagnated. In the consumer terminal, the offline auto stores in Shanghai are closed, and the online sales pressure is not small.

The reporter visited many auto 4S stores and brand direct stores in Beijing and found that the delivery cycle of mainstream models in the market has been extended recently, especially for new energy vehicles, the delivery cycle is generally about 5 to 7 weeks, and some models even have to wait for 5 months.

Chen Leiyu, an analyst with ICC Xinlun Information, told reporters that the impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the production of new energy vehicles in Shanghai was 70000-80000 units per month, and Tesla's production was 65000-70000 units per month.

However, there are also opportunities in the crisis. On April 15, it was reported that SAIC Group promoted the resumption of work and production and will start the pressure test on resumption of work and production on April 18. SAIC Group personnel responded to the Securities Times reporter: "As for the time of resumption of production, the company has internal goals, but it will timely adjust according to the situation of epidemic control and its own preparation."

On April 15, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would spare no effort to do a good job in the precise prevention and control of the epidemic, ensure smooth logistics and stabilize the supply chain of the industrial chain, take multiple measures to support the stable production of key enterprises in Shanghai, and concentrate resources to give priority to ensuring the resumption of production of 666 key enterprises in key industries such as integrated circuit, automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, etc.

Vehicle factory shutdown or production slowdown

As an important automobile town, Shanghai's automobile industry chain has been tested in this round of epidemic. In 2021, the national automobile output will be 26.528 million, including about 2.83 million in Shanghai, accounting for 10.7% of the national automobile output. According to the data of compulsory traffic insurance for new vehicles, the cumulative sales of new vehicles in Shanghai will reach 736700 in 2021, up 11.5% year on year. From the perspective of production and sales, Shanghai is a force that cannot be ignored in China's car market.

Under the epidemic situation, vehicle manufacturers bear the brunt. The reporter learned in the interview that at present, most vehicle enterprises in Shanghai have stopped work or reduced production.

"For example, when SAIC Volkswagen went to work in the middle of March, the company originally informed the employees to bring two weeks' daily necessities to prepare for closed management of production." An auto industry person in Shanghai told the reporter that due to the shortage of spare parts in the factory, production had to be stopped at the critical stage of sealing control.

In addition, SAIC GM, SAIC passenger cars and its own brand Zhiji have all set up production bases in Shanghai. Many factories of SAIC General Motors in Pudong have achieved closed-loop production. Workers have paved the floor in the factory and obtained truck delivery passes, which has guaranteed the supply of materials to a certain extent.

SAIC passenger car port base is also under closed-loop management. In addition to the employees of the vehicle factory and engine factory, there are thousands of outsourced logistics personnel, suppliers, security chefs and other personnel living in the factory. "Eating and living in the factory recaptured the capacity to some extent, but the subsequent supply chain problems could not be guaranteed, which directly led to the factory's production reduction or partial shutdown." The above auto industry people told reporters.

Since March 28, the Tesla Super Factory located near the port in Shanghai has also suspended production. With the upgrading of epidemic control, the Shanghai Super Factory cancelled the production plan originally scheduled for April 1. According to market information, Tesla's Shanghai super factory may not resume work until May 15. In this regard, Tesla China's relevant personnel clearly stated that the above rumors are false information. Tesla always adheres to the main responsibility of epidemic prevention, and arranges work according to the government's epidemic prevention policy at any time.

It is worth noting that on April 15, SAIC issued a guide for resuming production. The guideline points out that all enterprises should actively carry out stress testing according to the provisions of the Guidelines for Resumption of Work and Production. From now on, all production enterprises of SAIC will check the preparation for returning to work and production, and the results will be fed back before April 17. All production enterprises will start the pressure test for returning to work and production on April 18 according to the check results. All production enterprises carry out stress tests in five aspects: personnel security, supply chain security, logistics security, closed production management and epidemic prevention measures, and report the results and problems of stress tests in a timely manner. Enterprises with successful pressure test shall arrange the production of finished vehicles and parts as soon as possible.

"At present, we should cooperate in epidemic prevention according to the requirements of the government, at the same time, we should maintain and transform the equipment, and carefully prepare for production under epidemic prevention conditions." SAIC Group said to the reporter of Securities Times · e Company, "As for the time of resumption of production, the company has internal goals, but will make timely adjustments according to the controlled situation of the epidemic and its own preparation."

Recently, Sun Jian, Director of Jilin Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, also revealed that Jilin Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology is fully supporting FAW Group to resume production in an orderly manner in batches. He said that the first 47 parts enterprises are resuming work in an orderly manner.

"It is believed that the resumption of production of FAW and its industrial chain will drive the orderly resumption of production of other industries in the province." Sun abbreviation.

According to insiders of FAW Volkswagen, FAW has basically taken action at present, and supplier workers have basically entered the factory and are gradually promoting the resumption of production.

Affected by the above news, in the late afternoon of April 15, the auto parts sector rebounded, and the share prices of more than 70 listed parts companies rose collectively. Among them, Shangsheng Electronics, Changshu Automobile Decoration, Xinquan Co., Ltd., Huguang Co., Ltd. and Bertlefin Trading Limits.

Production is blocked due to poor supply of parts

The automobile industry is a complex category involving steel, metallurgy, ceramics and other raw materials, as well as electronics, electrical appliances and other industrial sectors, with a very long industrial chain. The supply speed of auto parts manufacturers is also constrained by the epidemic situation, which affects the production of vehicle manufacturers.

"As a gathering place of China's automobile industry, Shanghai has been impacted by the epidemic in Shanghai, including Volkswagen in Jiading, GM in Jinqiao, Tesla near the port, SAIC passenger vehicles and other complete vehicle enterprises. In addition, auto parts manufacturers located in Shanghai itself and Kunshan and Taicang around Shanghai have also been affected." Chen Leiyu said that this wave of epidemic has impacted the entire automobile industry chain in Shanghai, from parts to finished vehicles, and even affected the manufacturing of finished vehicles in other places.

Zhang Xiang, president of the New Energy Automobile Technology Research Institute of Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College, pointed out that the inventory cycle of raw materials and spare parts used by SAIC Volkswagen for production is usually 2 weeks, which means that when these stocks are consumed, the factory will inevitably face partial shutdown. "Take SAIC Volkswagen's factory in Anting, Shanghai, for example. Before the epidemic, its daily production was about 380 vehicles, while during the epidemic, its production was basically maintained at 200 vehicles, and its production capacity was directly reduced by nearly 50%." Zhang Xiang said.

According to incomplete statistics, there are tens of thousands of auto parts enterprises located in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, including Bosch, Ambofu, ZF, Schaeffler, Continental, Borg Warner and other foreign parts giants, as well as a large number of Chinese local parts suppliers, including Keboda, Baolong Technology, Daimei, United Electronics, Junsheng Electronics, Yanfeng Pio, Zejing Electronics, Weiran Power, etc.

The products of the above companies cover the front bumper, interior and exterior decoration, vehicle controller, camera, millimeter wave radar, brake by wire system, ESP, battery management system BMS and other core auto parts, almost covering the entire auto industry chain.

It is reported that the customers of these parts enterprises are mainly Volkswagen, General Motors, Ford, SAIC, FAW, Toyota, Benz, BMW, etc. The cooperative enterprises cover almost half of the automobile enterprises.

"Many of these parts suppliers are the exclusive suppliers of auto enterprises, such as Bosch's ESP, which is the exclusive supply of Great Wall Motors. Previously, Great Wall Motors' production and sales were also significantly reduced due to the insufficient supply of these parts." An insider revealed to the reporter of Securities Times · e Company that some auto parts enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Anhui have stopped production, which will directly impact the domestic auto supply chain.

"Some auto parts manufacturers are still in closed production to ensure important orders, such as those of overseas export auto enterprises. However, logistics and transportation are still a big challenge." Chen Leiyu said. In addition, the material support for employees to eat and live in the factory, as well as the management and time cost of nucleic acid or antigen detection also have an impact on the production capacity.

Pan Helin, co director and researcher of the Digital Economy and Financial Innovation Research Center of the International Joint Business School of Zhejiang University, told the reporter that the supply of upstream parts determines the downstream production capacity. Affected by the epidemic, auto parts enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai are forced to stop production, which is bound to bring bottlenecks to the production capacity of auto enterprises, resulting in the current situation that the terminal auto consumption is in short supply. However, compared with new energy vehicles, the supply and demand of fuel vehicles will not fluctuate too much.

Vehicle lead time forced to be extended

In addition to the pressure on the supply side, the resistance of the automobile offline consumer terminals also began to appear. The reporter learned that under the control of the epidemic situation, offline auto stores in Shanghai are basically closed, and employees work at home or eat and live in stores.

A staff member of Weilai's Shanghai store told the reporter that it is now possible to book cars online, and all employees work at home. "Production is temporarily suspended due to the epidemic, but will not be suspended all the time. When offline stores in Shanghai can be restored, no notice has been received for the time being." The staff member said that his work during the epidemic was mainly online, and he kept in touch with potential customers through WeChat and telephone.

"At present, we are isolated in the 4S store. It has been nearly half a month. Fortunately, there is a dormitory behind our store, which is also quite safe." A sales staff member of FAW Volkswagen in Shanghai told the reporter that it is basically online now. Although the sales work has not been interrupted, the pressure on the performance is not small. The sales said that the number of new customers is relatively small, and most of them are dealing with the backlog of orders. "Once there are online inquiries from new customers, I will respond enthusiastically in a timely manner and try to chat more." In order to attract customers to make decisions, the store also launched activities such as epidemic prevention and control car subsidies and epidemic subsidies.

On the other hand, due to the epidemic situation and other factors, the product delivery cycle of many automobile brands has been extended, while the outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai, Changchun and other places has further aggravated the current situation of difficult product delivery.

Recently, the reporter of Securities Times · e Company explored several auto sales stores located in the Blue Harbor Commercial Plaza in Beijing and found that the main new energy models in the market at present have to wait 5 to 7 weeks to pick up the car, and some even have to wait 20 weeks.

"Our deposit is 2000 yuan. If we make an order now, we will try our best to arrange existing cars, but the number of existing cars is also relatively limited." The salesperson of the Ulai brand store told the Securities Times · e Company that the company has stopped production for a short time, but the ES8 and ES6 models have a small amount of inventory. Now it is determined that the existing cars can be obtained quickly, but the ET7 model, which has just been delivered, will not be picked up until June.

"Living on inventory" has almost become the main survival status of current automobile sellers. "The Volkswagen ID.4X in the showroom tonight will be towed away and has been ordered by the user. Now, when buying a car, it depends on the inventory. If there are no models in stock, you have to wait." The sales staff of SAIC Volkswagen told the reporter that at present, SAIC Volkswagen ID.4X has a discount of about 18000 yuan, and the company will also give away certain car purchase rights and interests, which are converted into cash and are expected to be about 20000 yuan.

The China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the "China Automobile Association") pointed out at the monthly information exchange meeting held a few days ago that, from the perspective of automobile consumption, the current consumption momentum has been obviously insufficient, showing a certain decline compared with the same period. Looking forward to the whole year, the development of the automobile industry is facing the triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and expected weakening, and the task of stabilizing growth is very arduous.

Tesla suffers serious losses due to shutdown

According to the analysis of ICC Xinlu Information, due to the epidemic prevention policy, the factory lacks staff, production and logistics are stagnant, and the supply of key parts is blocked. In the epidemic situation, vehicle enterprises are most affected. Chen Leiyu said that the impact of the epidemic situation in Shanghai on the production of new energy vehicles in Shanghai was 70000 to 80000 vehicles a month, and Tesla's monthly production was about 65000 to 70000 vehicles. In addition to Tesla, Volkswagen Anting MEB and Lingang Rongwei plug-in hybrid models also stopped production.

Zhang Xiang calculated an account for the reporter. According to the output of Tesla in January and February, the daily production capacity of Tesla is about 2000 vehicles. "If we calculate the downtime of 20 days and the price of 300000 yuan per vehicle, the loss of Tesla exceeds 10 billion yuan."

"It is Tesla that has suffered the greatest loss from the complete vehicle factory in Shanghai. Tesla has no inventory in the factory now. If we calculate the production of about 2500 vehicles a day, the capacity loss is 30000 to 40000 vehicles as of April 15. If we stop work until May 1, the capacity loss should be about 70000 vehicles." An auto industry person in Shanghai told the reporter.

In fact, the decline of production and sales data has already appeared in March. On April 11, the China Automobile Association released data showing that in March this year, the domestic automobile production and sales data were 2.241 million and 2.234 million, down 9.1% and 11.7% year on year.

CAAC believes that the production capacity of auto manufacturers has been reduced to a certain extent, mainly due to the epidemic, and some auto enterprises even have to reduce or stop production; In terms of product consumption, the epidemic has affected consumers' ability and confidence to buy cars, and the consumption momentum is obviously insufficient.

What will be the auto production and sales data in April, when the epidemic prevention and control become stricter? Some interviewed experts believe that the working days in April are not long due to the influence of the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, and there is little potential for production and sales growth. The production and marketing of passenger cars in core regions are greatly affected by the epidemic. Due to the long automobile industry chain and high coordination requirements, the core production and logistics bases have a wider range of production stoppages, and the pressure on production and marketing of the car market may be relatively large in April.

However, some experts believe that it is not difficult to recover the output after the release. "First of all, some enterprises have a certain amount of inventory, and the surrounding areas of Shanghai also have a certain ability to resist risks. Now the efficiency of automobile manufacturing is also getting higher and higher. I believe that we can recover the output in May and June." The above industry personage told the reporter of Securities Times · e Company that the current supply side problem is not as big as the demand side problem, and how to boost the automobile consumption power after the epidemic is also an unavoidable topic.

"The Shanghai market accounts for about 7% of the sales volume of new energy vehicles nationwide, and the delivery volume in Shanghai was basically zero in April. At present, auto enterprises and parts enterprises have stopped production in a large area, and production cannot be restarted in a short time. The restart of terminal car enterprises depends on the restart of parts manufacturers, and it is expected that production will resume at least in the first ten days of May." Chen Leiyu said.

Smooth supply chain and actively guarantee supply

The automobile supply chain involves eight manufacturing systems and tens of thousands of parts. It is one of the longest and most difficult industrial chains in almost all industrial supply chains. At the same time, due to the strict product certification system between the upstream and downstream of the automotive industry, it is difficult for automotive enterprises to switch suppliers frequently.

Because of this, the management of automobile supply chain has always been a highly valued topic for automobile enterprises and the entire industry.

The shortage of automobile chips in 2021 has made the management of automobile industry chain and supply chain "red light". Many automobile enterprises have stepped up to establish direct contact with suppliers and take measures such as joint research and development to actively guarantee supply.

However, due to the influence of epidemic situation and other factors, China's automobile supply chain industry has been blocked and